Getting Dirty?
New Hampshire Presidential
Primary
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Likely primary voters expect the worst is yet to come:
Although
many voters likely to vote in New Hampshire’s Democratic or Republican
Primaries still think the candidates are discussing the issues,
most voters think the campaigns will get more negative as primary day
approaches. 61% of both likely Democratic
primary voters and likely Republican primary voters think the candidates are
mostly focused on the issues. However, 70%
of likely Democratic primary voters and 66% of likely Republican primary voters
think the tone of the campaign will get worse as primary day gets closer.
Question
Wording: Do
you feel that the Democratic/Republican candidates for president have spent
more time talking about their positions on issues or attacking each other?
Likely
Voters
|
Talking Issues |
Attacking Each Other |
Both |
Neither |
Unsure |
Democratic
primary voters
|
61% |
26% |
7% |
1% |
5% |
Republican
primary voters
|
61% |
29% |
5% |
1% |
4% |
Question
Wording: Do
you think the tone of the Democratic/Republican presidential campaign is generally
getting more negative or less negative as it gets closer to primary day?
Likely
Voters
|
More Negative |
Less Negative |
Will Stay About the Same |
Democratic
primary voters
|
70% |
23% |
7% |
Republican
primary voters
|
66% |
28% |
6% |
·
Who’s to blame for the
negative tone? About
one in three likely Democratic and Republican primary voters aren’t really sure
any one candidate is more responsible for brandishing barbs against the others. Among likely Democratic primary voters who do
point a finger, blame is mostly laid at the doorstep of their favorite
candidate’s major opponents. For
instance, Hillary Clinton’s supporters are more likely to hold Barack Obama
responsible for the negative campaign tone as are backers of John Edwards. Obama’s supporters are more likely to blame
Edwards and Clinton. On the Republican
side, 32% of likely Republican primary voters think Rudy Giuliani has done the
most attacking. Although one in ten of Giuliani’s
supporters shares this view, this perception is largely fueled by 34% of John McCain’s
supporters and 48%
of likely Republican primary voters who back Mitt Romney.
Question Wording: Which Democratic
presidential candidate do you think is attacking the other candidates the most:
Likely
Democratic Primary Voters
|
December 2007 |
Clinton Supporters |
Edwards Supporters |
Obama Supporters |
|
Barack Obama |
22% |
30% |
30% |
2% |
|
John Edwards |
20% |
18% |
6% |
29% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
12% |
1% |
19% |
26% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
4% |
5% |
2% |
7% |
|
Joe Biden |
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
|
Bill Richardson |
2% |
4% |
5% |
<1% |
|
Chris Dodd |
2% |
2% |
<1% |
5% |
|
Mike Gravel |
1% |
2% |
<1% |
2% |
|
Unsure |
34% |
34% |
35% |
26% |
Question Wording: Which Republican
presidential candidate do you think is attacking the other candidates the most:
Likely
Republican Primary Voters
|
December 2007 |
Giuliani Supporters |
McCain Supporters |
Romney Supporters |
|
Rudy
Giuliani |
32% |
10% |
34% |
48% |
|
Mitt
Romney |
14% |
25% |
26% |
<1% |
|
Ron
Paul |
8% |
14% |
6% |
1% |
|
John
McCain |
7% |
7% |
<1% |
11% |
|
Fred
Thompson |
5% |
4% |
6% |
5% |
|
Mike
Huckabee |
2% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
|
Tom
Tancredo |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
4% |
|
Duncan
Hunter |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
1% |
|
Unsure |
31% |
39% |
24% |
29% |
·
On the Democratic side,
Hillary Clinton is more likely to be seen as the target of negative attacks: There is a consensus among likely Democratic
primary voters that Hillary Clinton is the candidate most likely to be the
recipient of negative attacks. 76% of
likely Democratic primary voters think Clinton is the candidate who is attacked
the most. But, likely voters divide over
whether or not these attacks are deserved.
About two-thirds of supporters of her closest opponents, Barack Obama
and John Edwards, generally believe the attacks on Clinton are fair. This compares with 65% of Clinton’s backers
who believe the attacks are unfair.
Question Wording: Which Democratic
presidential candidate do you think is being attacked the most:
Likely
Democratic Primary Voters
|
December 2007 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
76% |
|
Barack Obama |
9% |
|
John Edwards |
2% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1% |
|
Bill Richardson |
1% |
|
Joe Biden |
<1% |
|
Mike Gravel |
<1% |
|
Chris Dodd |
<1% |
|
Unsure |
11% |
Question
Wording: Do you think the other Democratic
presidential candidates are attacking Hillary Clinton fairly, unfairly, or not
at all?
Likely
Democratic Primary Voters
|
Attacks Are Fair |
Attacks Are Unfair |
Not Attacking At All |
Unsure |
December
2007
|
45% |
42% |