New Hampshire Presidential Primary

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Sunday, October 14, 2007

Contact:        Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Democratic Presidential Primary 2008

·             How the Democratic Field Shapes Up:  Hillary Clinton has a wide lead over her Democratic rivals for the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary.  41% of likely Democratic presidential primary voters support New York Senator Clinton followed by 20% for Senator Barack Obama.  Former Senator John Edwards receives 11%.  The other candidates, Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Joe Biden, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Chris Dodd, and former Senator Mike Gravel, all trail with single digit support.[*]

 

Question Wording: If the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

Potential Democratic
Primary Voters

 

Likely Voters

Likely Voters

with Leaners

 

Total

Hillary Clinton

41%

43%

40%

Barack Obama

20%

21%

20%

John Edwards

11%

12%

12%

Bill Richardson

  8%

  8%

  7%

Joe Biden

  3%

  3%

  2%

Dennis Kucinich

  3%

  3%

  2%

Chris Dodd

  2%

  2%

  2%

Mike Gravel

<1%

<1%

<1%

Undecided

12%

  8%

15%

·                The Candidates’ Supporters:  Hillary Clinton receives support from 43% of Democrats and 38% of Democratic leaning independents.  She also leads among liberals and moderates, and across all age groups.  There is a gender gap among those who support her candidacy.  Nearly half, 47%, of women likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary support her.  Only 32% of likely Democratic presidential primary voters who are men say they will vote for her on primary day.  Barack Obama does better among independents than Democrats.   He receives the support of 29% of independents but just 14% of Democrats.  Senator Obama is also more popular with younger voters than voters forty-five years of age or older.   29% of likely Democratic presidential primary voters under age forty-five support him compared with 15% of voters who are forty-five or older.

 

Question Wording: If the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

Likely Dem. Voters

 

Clinton

 

Obama

 

Edwards

 

Richardson

 

Biden

 

Kucinich

 

Dodd

 

Undecided

Democrats

43%

14%

11%

  9%

  3%

  2%

  2%

16%

Independents

38%

29%

10%

  7%

  3%

  5%

  1%

  7%

Liberal

38%

21%

13%

  6%

  1%

  5%

  1%

15%

Moderate

40%

20%

  9%

12%

  4%

  1%

  2%

12%

Men

32%

21%

10%

  9%

  6%

  8%

  3%

11%

Women

47%

20%

10%

  8%

  1%

<1%

  1%

13%

Not college

46%

17%

  9%

10%

  2%

  1%

  2%

13%

College

36%

23%

12%

  7%

  3%

  6%

  1%

12%

< $50,000

46%

18%

  7%

  8%

  3%

  4%

<1%

14%

$50,000 or >

38%

22%

13%

  9%

  3%

  3%

  2%

10%

18 to 44

41%

29%

  7%

  6%

  2%