New Hampshire Presidential
Primary
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Hillary Clinton’s lead narrows among likely
Democratic primary voters: Hillary
Clinton’s once commanding lead over her Democratic rivals for the 2008 New
Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary has been nearly halved. Last month, Clinton led her closest
competitor, Barack Obama, by 21 percentage points. Now, the gap has narrowed to just 11
percentage points. 36% of likely
Democratic presidential primary voters support Senator Clinton followed by 25%
for Senator Obama. Former Senator John Edwards
receives 14%. The remaining candidates,
Governor Bill Richardson, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe Biden,
Senator Chris Dodd, and former Senator Mike Gravel trail with single digit
support.[*]
Question
Wording: If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would
you support if the candidates are:
Potential Democratic
Primary Voters
|
November 2007 |
October 2007 |
||||
|
Likely Voters |
Likely Voters w/ Leaners |
Total |
Likely Voters |
Likely Voters w/ Leaners |
Total |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
36% |
38% |
39% |
41% |
43% |
40% |
|
Barack Obama |
25% |
26% |
23% |
20% |
21% |
20% |
|
John Edwards |
14% |
14% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
|
Bill Richardson |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
|
Joe Biden |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
|
Chris Dodd |
1% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
Mike Gravel |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Undecided |
13% |
9% |
13% |
12% |
8% |
15% |
·
What’s changed? Although Hillary Clinton has seen a decline in
support among many groups within New Hampshire’s likely Democratic Primary
electorate, one of the biggest changes has been among men forty-five years of
age and older. Last month, she led both
Barack Obama and John Edwards by 20 percentage points among this group. It is now a three-way contest. In a turnabout from last month’s poll, Obama
now leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among first time voters. He trailed Clinton by 19 percentage points
among first time voters in the earlier poll.
Nearly one in five likely Democratic primary voters has never before
voted in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary.
Question
Wording: If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would
you support if the candidates are:
|
Likely Dem. Voters |
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Other |
Undecided |
Clinton Lead |
Percentage Point Change |
|
Men |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- 14 |
|
November 2007 |
23% |
26% |
18% |
20% |
13% |
-
3 |
|
|
October 2007 |
32% |
21% |
10% |
26% |
11% |
11 |
|
|
Men 45 and older |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- 22 |
|
November 2007 |
22% |
24% |
20% |
21% |
13% |
-
2 |
|
|
October 2007 |
36% |
16% |
16% |
23% |
9% |
20 |
|
|
Women |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- 6 |
|
November 2007 |
45% |
24% |
11% |
7% |
13% |
21 |
|
|
October 2007 |
47% |
20% |
10% |
10% |
13% |
27 |
|