FINAL POLL
New Hampshire Presidential
Primary
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho Marist College 845.575.5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
·
Barack Obama leads among likely Democratic primary
voters in New Hampshire: After a decisive win in Iowa, Barack
Obama is positioned to win the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential
Primary. 36% of likely Democratic
presidential primary voters including those currently leaning towards a
candidate support Senator Obama followed by 28% for Senator Clinton and 22% for
former Senator John Edwards.
Question
Wording: If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would
you support if the candidates are:
Likely Democratic
Primary Voters
|
January 7, 2008 |
December 2007 |
||
|
Likely w/ Leaners |
Likely Voters |
Likely w/ Leaners |
Likely Voters |
|
|
Barack Obama |
36% |
34% |
24% |
23% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
28% |
28% |
37% |
37% |
|
John Edwards |
22% |
21% |
18% |
18% |
|
Bill Richardson |
7% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
Other |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
1% |
|
Undecided |
4% |
7% |
8% |
10% |
·
Who’s supporting whom? Barack Obama runs up the score with the
support of 43% of independents likely to vote in the New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential Primary. He does not do as
well against Hillary Clinton among registered Democrats. Obama outpaces Clinton among men 37% to 21%
and is closely matched with Clinton among women voters. Nearly one in five likely Democratic primary
voters has never before voted in New Hampshire’s Democratic Primary. Obama receives the support of 49% of first
time voters compared with 20% for Clinton.
He also outdistances her among voters under 45 years of age by nearly
two to one.
Question
Wording: If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would
you support if the candidates are:
|
Likely Dem Prim Voters w/Leaners |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Other |
Undecided |
|
Democrats |
30% |
36% |
23% |
8% |
3% |
|
Independents |
43% |
16% |
22% |
14% |
5% |
|
Men |
37% |
21% |
21% |
16% |
5% |
|
Women |
34% |
33% |
24% |
5% |
4% |
|
Liberal |
32% |
29% |
24% |
10% |
5% |
|
Moderate |
36% |
28% |
20% |
11% |
5% |
|
Conservative |
25% |
40% |
27% |
7% |
1% |
|
Not
college |
32% |
32% |
24% |
8% |
4% |
|
College |
38% |
25% |
21% |
11% |
5% |
|
<
$50,000 |
33% |
27% |
24% |
12% |
4% |
|
$50,000
or > |
36% |
28% |
22% |
10% |
4% |
|
18
to 44 |
42% |
22% |
20% |
10% |
6% |
|
45
or older |
30% |
33% |
25% |
10% |
2% |
|
1st
time voter in Dem. primary |
49% |
20% |
16% |
13% |
2% |
·
Intensity of Support: Overall, 78% of likely New Hampshire
Democratic Presidential Primary voters strongly support a candidate for their
party’s nomination for president. 88% of
likely voters who back Hillary Clinton say they are strongly committed to
her. This compares with 77% of Barack
Obama’s supporters who are firmly committed to him and 70% of John Edwards’
voters who strongly back their candidate.
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate),
somewhat support him/her, or do you think you might vote differently on primary
day? (Support for the other candidates
is too small for subgroup analysis)
|
Likely Democratic Primary
Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
January 2008
|
78% |
15% |
7% |