New Jersey Campaign 2006

Final Poll

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: SATURDAY 6:00 P.M. NOVEMBER 4, 2006

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This WNBC/Marist Poll of New Jersey reports:

· Democrat Robert Menendez leads Republican Tom Kean, Jr. among likely voters in the race for U.S. Senate: As campaign 2006 heads into the homestretch, Robert Menendez receives the support of 50% of likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, compared with 42% who support Tom Kean, Jr. Eight percent remain undecided. There is an enormous partisan divide. 82% of Democrats support Menendez, and 81% of Republicans support Kean. The majority of independent voters back Menendez. He receives the support of 51% of independents likely to vote on Election Day compared with 39% for Kean.

Question Wording: If next week's election for U.S. Senate in New Jersey were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

	Tom Kean, Jr. Republican	Robert Menendez Democrat	Undecided
Likely Voters w/ Leaners	42%	50%	8%
Party
Democrat	10%	82%	8%
Republican	81%	14%	5%
Independent	39%	51%	10%
Likely Voters	41%	49%	10%
Registered Voters
November 4, 2006	41%	45%	14%
September 28, 2006	42%	37%	21%

· Most voters are firmly committed to their choice for U.S. Senate: 70% of likely voters who have a preference in the race for U.S. Senate strongly support their candidate. 24% say they somewhat support their choice, and only 5% say they might vote differently on Election Day. One percent is unsure. There is little difference in the intensity of support for each candidate. 69% of Robert Menendez’ supporters say they are firmly committed to him compared with 71% of Tom Kean’s supporters who say they are firmly committed to their choice.

Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate’s name) somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?

Likely Voters	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
November 4, 2006	70%	24%	5%	1%
Kean supporters	71%	24%	5%	<1%
Menendez supporters	69%	24%	5%	2%

· Most voters view the U.S. Senate campaign as contentious: 82% of registered voters believe the candidates for U.S. Senate spent the campaign attacking each other rather than focusing on the issues. Only 9% feel the candidates spent more time talking about their positions on issues.

Question Wording: In general, do you feel that the candidates for U.S. Senate have spent more time talking about their positions on the issues or attacking each other?

Registered Voters	Talking Issues	Attacking	Both	Neither	Unsure
November 4, 2006	9%	82%	4%	<1%	5%

· Is this the only choice? A majority of registered voters in the Garden State are disappointed with the candidates they have to choose from for U.S. Senate. 56% are dissatisfied with their ballot choice compared with 38% who say they are satisfied. Independents are particularly disheartened. 64% of independent voters are dissatisfied with the choice between Menendez and Kean, and only 30% are satisfied.

Question Wording: In general, are you satisfied or not satisfied with the candidates who are running for U.S. Senate in New Jersey?

Registered Voters	Satisfied	Not Satisfied	Unsure
November 4, 2006	38%	56%	6%
Party
Democrat	44%	51%	5%
Republican	39%	56%	5%
Independent	30%	64%	6%

· New Jersey’s generic congressional ballot has Democrats over Republicans by 15 percentage points: Although these results do not reflect the contests in individual congressional districts, a majority of likely voters in New Jersey intend to support a Democratic candidate for Congress. 53% of likely Garden State voters plan to vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress including a majority of independent voters. 38% of likely voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate.

Question Wording: If next week’s election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district:

Likely Voters	The Democratic Candidate	The Republican Candidate	Other	Unsure
November 4, 2006	53%	38%	1%	8%
Party
Democrat	85%	8%	1%	6%
Republican	14%	80%	1%	5%
Independent	55%	34%	<1%	11%

· Democrats likely to vote on Election Day are more enthusiastic about this year’s elections than are Republicans: 45% of Democrats who are likely to vote on Tuesday say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than they have been in previous elections. This compares with 31% of Republicans and 32% of independent voters likely to cast a ballot on Election Day who share this view.

Question Wording: This year are you more enthusiastic, less enthusiastic or about as enthusiastic about voting as you have been in previous elections?

Likely Voters	More Enthusiastic	Less Enthusiastic	About as Enthusiastic
November 4, 2006	37%	13%	50%
Party
Democrat	45%	8%	47%
Republican	31%	18%	51%
Independent	32%	11%	57%

Registered Voters	More Enthusiastic	Less Enthusiastic	About as Enthusiastic
November 4, 2006	26%	26%	48%
Party
Democrat	31%	24%	45%
Republican	24%	31%	45%
Independent	20%	24%	56%

· Iraq and the war on terrorism top the list of what matters most to voters heading into Election Day: 82% of registered voters see the war in Iraq and 80% see the war on terrorism as major factors in determining their vote on Tuesday. These issues are followed closely by corruption in government with 75% and taxes with 74%. Other concerns for a majority of voters include which party controls Congress, President Bush, and the situation with North Korea. Only 32% of Garden State voters consider the handling of the page scandal in Congress a major factor when they cast their ballot on Election Day.

Question Wording: Please tell me if each of the following is a major factor, a minor factor, or not a factor in your vote next week:

Registered Voters	Major Factor	Minor Factor	Not a Factor
The Iraq war	82%	10%	8%
The war on terrorism	80%	14%	6%
Corruption in government	75%