Mayor’s Race: Still Off-Broadway

The Democratic and Republican primaries for NYC mayor are fast approaching. With an anticipated low turnout, campaign strategies, insider analysis, and public opinion polls are increasingly focusing on so-called "likely voters," the critical subgroup of the electorate expected to cast ballots on primary day.

The contest for mayor has had a lackluster character to date, unusual by Big Apple standards. Things are, however, beginning to heat up on the Democratic side of the ballot box as candidates are jockeying for position. The latest Marist Poll points to two developments in handicapping the race. First, front-runner Mark Green’s numbers are in the mid-thirties among likely voters and approach the magical 40% figure, his goal to avoid a runoff, when undecided voters are asked to indicate a preference. This fact is not lost on Green’s rivals, especially Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer who needs a greater share of Green’s current support among African-American voters and City Comptroller Alan Hevesi who is trying to make inroads into Green’s following among liberal voters.

The second factor to be watched is who will qualify for the runoff, assuming Green leads the pack but falls short of the 40% cutoff. In this instance, the three second-tier candidates are all closely bunched together. Each can make a legitimate case for finishing second.

Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer hopes to ride a wave of endorsements, including his recent support from Reverend Al Sharpton, to forge a Latino-African-American coalition. Ferrer is not expected to do well among white voters where he is currently drawing fewer than 5%. But, with the changing demography of NYC politics, Latino and Black voters might reach 50% of the Democratic primary vote for the first time. To secure a spot in the runoff, Ferrer needs to be viewed as the anti-Giuliani candidate among African-American voters and to attract a big turnout among Latino voters who represent his core following.

City Comptroller Alan Hevesi has had a roller-coaster ride of late by skirmishing with the Campaign Finance Board over the role of his campaign consultant Hank Morris and, more recently, by locking horns in his daily page one brawl with Rudy Giuliani over who is more honest. Taking on Giuliani and the New York Post in his latest ads is a high-risk strategy for Hevesi, but it might give him a needed boast if he can corner the anti-Giuliani vote among undecided white Democratic primary voters. His sideshow with Giuliani has a "general election" feel to it and projects him beyond the primary.

City Council Speaker Peter Vallone is trying to build upon recent momentum from major newspaper endorsements to get into the mix. Vallone is doing well among white Catholic voters citywide, but that group represents a shrinking part of the city’s Democratic primary voters. He fares well among older voters, regarded as a high turnout group, and has targeted his ads to garner their support. If the other three Democrats start throwing body blows, Vallone might benefit by being outside the ring.

The similarity of the candidates on the issues (will the real education mayor stand up) and the wide array of endorsements by unions, organizations, and individuals have kept this race fluid and the outcome in doubt. A large number of potential voters remain undecided and those who have a preference say they might still vote differently.

Given these two question marks in the Democratic contest – runoff or no runoff, and the battle for second place – there is no guarantee the race will be decided on primary night. Does the name Florida ring a bell?

On the GOP side of the equation, Michael Bloomberg is expected to win the primary over Herman Badillo. He is certainly winning the air war. The key for Bloomberg, assuming he is successful in the primary, is to lay a foundation to attract Democratic crossover votes for the general election in November. An additional factor to be watched is whether Alan Hevesi, if he does not secure the Democratic nod, continues to campaign actively on the Liberal Party line. Herman Badillo is also trying to secure minor party support for his candidacy following the primary. For Michael Bloomberg as he sets his sights on November, it’s the more the merrier.

Although things have gotten somewhat more interesting in these contests, those expecting the intensity to skyrocket in the closing days of the primary campaign should note a major league distraction looming over the horizon. The Yankees and Red Sox are playing a four game series in the Bronx starting on the Friday before the primary and ending with the Red Sox leaving town on Monday, the eve of the primary. Subway chatter that weekend about who’s in first place may have little to do with who is likely to be the next mayor.