9/5/00

How Hillary and Rick Spent Their Summer Vacations

It’s been 22 months since Senator Moynihan shook up the NY political scene by announcing his plans not to seek re-election. Finally, the traditional Labor Day kick-off for Campaign 2000 has been reached. As Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rick Lazio square off in the remaining nine weeks until election day, expect the contest to soon resemble a food fight in the cafeteria.

For most of the summer, the match-up looked more like a modern dance with very little contact by the participants. This two-step served both Hillary and Rick’s short-term interests.

Because of Hillary’s high negatives, Rick was content to stay out of the limelight and prolong the time that the race would stay all about Hillary. From a glimpse at bumper

Stickers on the L.I.E. you might conclude that Hillary’s last name was “go home.” Some have suggested that Lazio would be well-advised to extend this summer strategy of renting a rowboat on a secluded lake in the Adirondacks to take a lengthy hiking trip

checking out the fall foliage.

But this strategy comes up short for Lazio who finds himself locked in the mid-forties in public opinion polls. The anybody-but-Hillary vote is not enough to gain victory in and of itself. Recently, the Lazio campaign has sought to engage Clinton on values and character by emphasizing two related themes: first, that she is not one of us; and second, that she cannot be trusted.

On Hillary’s side of the equation, she has spent the summer trying to get her own political house in order. By completing her tour of New York’s 62 counties/By putting her footprints in all 62 NY counties/, she hoped to convince voters that she was not merely looking to claim an open Senate seat but was out to earn it. She has ended her fly-by campaign when First Lady responsibilities took her away from her Senate effort and grounded herself in the NY scene.

As her poll numbers have also languished in the mid-forties, she has increasingly sought to engage the Lazio campaign, first, by linking him to GOP Congressional actions and then, by trying to get voters to compare the two of them and make a choice. Both in her stump speeches and in a fund-raising letter recently sent by President Clinton reference is made to the final stretch of the campaign.

So, the air wars in New York have commenced with Lazio on the character dimension and Clinton on the issues side. This is not at odds with how Bush and Gore are staking out the national electoral terrain. With both sides having raised big $$$ and with campaigns staffed by handlers who are not particularly shy, expect the intensity in this forty-something to forty-something race to grow daily. With this scenario on the horizon, short of a subway series, it is hard to imagine how Hillary and Rick won’t make the fall campaign season one for the record books, even by New York standards.

Shadows that Cover

Shadows that Smother

George W. Bush is content to run his campaign under the shadow cast by former President George Bush while Al Gore has sought to get out from under the shadow cast by the Clinton cloud. The contrasting approaches of the two campaigns were apparent in the selection of Cheney and Lieberman; the first, from George W. father’s administration; the second, the most outspoken Democratic critic of President Clinton’s failings.

At the GOP convention in Philadelphia this summer, the nostalgia of the pre-Clinton years was heartfelt while the effort to fasten Al Gore tightly to the Clinton Administration was a daily theme.

At the Democratic gathering in Los Angeles, Gore was relieved when his boss left town so the 2000 nominee could emerge as his own man. The switch from the Clinton-Gore Administration to the Gore-Lieberman ticket was the number one goal.

As the campaigns kick into high gear, the shadows shorten and the presidential nominees must stand on their own. At this moment, Al Gore is faring better out from under Bill Clinton’s shadow than W. is in his own right. Clearly, “me and my shadow” means different things to the Gore and Bush campaigns.