Al Gore vs. Hillary Clinton in NY: What the Huge Difference in Support Means?

Current polls suggest that Al Gore is likely to win big time in New York, while First Lady Hillary Clinton is in a battle for the Senate seat. Where is the gap in support between Gore and Clinton among New York voters? What does this foretell about election night?

In the latest Marist College Poll of likely New York voters Al Gore leads George W. Bush by 20 plus percent. Hillary Clinton has at best a slight edge over Long Island Congressman Rick Lazio. The widest gaps in support between Gore and Clinton are found in the suburbs surrounding New York City and among Jewish, moderate, and middle aged voters. By gender, Democratic and Independent men represent the largest dropoff in Clinton’s support from Gore’s. A wide Gore margin in New York does not guarantee a Clinton victory.

The Clinton and Lazio campaign teams must develop strategies in the closing weeks of the campaign to deal with the disparity in support at the top of their respective tickets. Hillary Clinton hopes to make a fashion statement and reintroduce coat-tails to the New York electorate. Expect frequent drop-ins by the Liebermans to keep New York voters from wandering from the Democratic line. Clinton will also try to overcome her high negatives by presenting herself as the candidate who is campaigning harder for the support of New Yorkers.

For Rick Lazio to minimize the Bush weakness in New York one of two things needs to occur: either there must be a huge Gore-Lazio vote, although approximately one in six Gore voters would need to split their tickets, or many voters must decide to skip the Senate line altogether.

Ticket-splitting is much more common these days, and the Lazio campaign seems to understand the necessity of maximizing the Gore-Lazio vote. His stay in Philadelphia at the GOP convention was brief and his visibility was below the radar screen. In Debate 1 in Buffalo last week, he did not mention Bush once (He did refer to Gore). Watchful eyes will pay close attention in the next few weeks to how Lazio not only buffers himself against Clinton’s attempts to tie him to Newt Gingrich, but also how he distances himself from George W. Bush in an attempt to attract Gore crossover voters.

New York voters are not averse to skipping a line if neither candidate is attractive. There was a significant falloff in Senate voting in 1992 when Bill Clinton carried the state convincingly while Al D’Amato narrowly defeated Democrat Robert Abrams. There were unusual elements to that election in addition to the falloff; namely, Ross Perot garnering double-digit support on the presidential line. As a result, Abrams attracted a similar share of a smaller vote as Clinton while D’Amato ran substantially ahead of Bush in carrying the state.

When it comes to soft Clinton backers skipping the Senate line, Lazio’s attacks on Hillary’s character may backfire. Lazio walks a fine line when he dwells on the personal issues. Hillary may reemerge as a more sympathetic figure, particularly with white female voters. Reaction to his debate style broke sharply along gender lines. Lazio’s recent emphasis as a fighter for New York is more in keeping with the Gore message.

Added pressure on the Lazio campaign stems from what looks like a good Democratic turnout in New York this November, creating a more favorable general terrain for Hillary Clinton. Regardless of how large the Gore-Lazio vote turns out to be or the eventual size of the falloff in Senate voting, Democrats may be more mobilized to turnout in the state where Gore/Lieberman have much greater presence than Bush/Cheney. Lazio’s concern, shared by other downballot Republicans in NY, is based on the sense that Bush may have written off New York’s 33 electoral votes. Unlike California, where many House seeks are in play and Bush is required to bring out the GOP base vote, there is no comparable need in New York.

There is little Lazio can do if turnout skews Democratic in NY this go around. Mario Cuomo failed to overcome a poor Democratic turnout upstate in 1994, the Contract with America election. Chuck Schumer was advantaged by the good Democratic turnout in 1998 in unseating Al D’Amato.

In politics, you have to play the hand you’re dealt. For both Clinton and Lazio, campaign strategies are made complex by the presidential ballot lead-off on election day.