Random Notes

If it’s October, it’s debate time

It might be playoff time for New York baseball, but the October season is debate time, as well. New York debate watchers have already had occasion to observe rounds one and two of Lazio vs. Clinton. On the national scale, Gore and Bush and their running mates are well into their confrontations. The media play these events for all they’re worth and so do the pollsters (we are guilty of this, too).

Pre-debate mania takes the form of sizing up what each participant must do to carry the day. Pre-debate polls set expectations. Post-debate activity is dominated by the emergence of the spin doctors and the instant polls to determine winners and losers.

Only when the dust settles does a clearer picture of the impact of the debate on the race emerge. Following the Gore/Bush debate in Boston, a half-dozen instant measures of voter reaction provided an incomplete view of who voters thought won the debate vs. how candidate support changed. Gore came out on top in Boston but the race narrowed.

Debates are useful in introducing and reintroducing candidates to the electorate and in fine tuning an appeal. They provide insight into campaign strategies. Are the candidates pitching it to the undecided voters or to their core supporters? Are the candidates trying to plug up a vulnerability from a previous debate by trying to have a second chance to make a first impression. Rick Lazio in round two avoided the attack style he used in Buffalo that took the focus away from Hillary Clinton and made his performance the center of attention.

More times than not debates are reinforcing not converting. But with major contests as close as the New York Senate race or presidential are even the slightest competitive advantage garnered thru the debates can be consequential. As poll-watchers zero in on the closing weeks of these campaigns and voter reaction to the debates sinks in, polls will be helpful in gauging the role these encounters have in determining the next senator from New York as well as to whom Hillary and Bill will be turning over the keys of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.