FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l 845.575.5050

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, September 12, 2000

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Clinton vs. Lazio: On the Eve of the Debate

Hillary Clinton edges Rick Lazio among registered voters for New York’s U.S. Senate seat. Hillary Clinton has the support of 49% of registered voters, and Rick Lazio receives 44%. 7% are undecided. Among likely voters, Clinton garners 48% of the vote compared to Lazio’s 46%. 6% of likely voters remain undecided. When undecided likely voters are asked which candidate they are leaning towards, Hillary Clinton receives 50% and Rick Lazio receives 47%. 3% of likely voters remain undecided.

Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rick Lazio, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?

Registered voters

Rick Lazio

Hillary Clinton

Undecided

September 12, 2000

44%

49%

7%

June 2000

42%

42%

16%

Likely Voters

September 12, 2000

46%

48%

6%

Likely w/ Leaners

September 12, 2000

47%

50%

3%

Likely Voters

Rick Lazio

Hillary Clinton

Undecided

Region

Upstate

53%

43%

4%

New York City

24%

69%

7%

Suburbs

62%

31%

7%

Gender

Men

51%

43%

6%

Women

42%

52%

6%

White Women

48%

46%

6%

Non-white Women

14%

83%

3%

Likely Voters

Rick Lazio

Hillary Clinton

Undecided

Party

Democrat

17%

78%

5%

Republican

79%

16%

5%

Independent

59%

33%

8%

Race

White

54%

40%

6%

Black

4%

88%

8%

Latino

18%

76%

6%

Religion

Protestant

49%

46%

5%

Catholic

51%

43%

6%

White Catholic

55%

39%

6%

Jewish

37%

55%

8%

75% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters and 69% of Rick Lazio’s supporters are strongly committed to their candidate.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rick Lazio/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on election day?

Likely Voters

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

Unsure

September 12, 2000

72%

22%

5%

1%

Rick Lazio Supporters

69%

24%

6%

1%

Hillary Clinton Supporters

75%

20%

4%

1%

80% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of her rather than negative feelings about Lazio. In contrast, only 41% of Rick Lazio’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of him rather than negative ones towards Clinton.

Question Wording: Rick Lazio Supporters: Did you choose Rick Lazio because you are for Rick Lazio or because you are against Hillary Clinton? Hillary Clinton Supporters: Did you choose Hillary Clinton because you are for Hillary Clinton or because you are against Rick Lazio?

Likely Voters

For

Against

Unsure

September 12, 2000

61%

35%

4%

Rick Lazio supporters

41%

53%

6%

Hillary Clinton supporters

80%

17%

3%

Favorable/Unfavorable Impressions

There has been no significant change in the number of New York registered voters who have either a positive or negative impression of Hillary Clinton since last June. Among those New York voters who have an opinion of Rick Lazio, there has been an increase in the number of registered voters who rate him negatively.

Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Rick Lazio

September 12, 2000

52%

32%

16%

June 2000

50%

12%

38%

Hillary Clinton

September 12, 2000

54%

40%

6%

June 2000

53%

39%

8%

March 2000

47%

46%

7%

February 24, 2000

50%

40%

10%

February 4, 2000

50%

41%

9%

January 2000

48%

43%

9%

December 1999

52%

38%

10%

October 1999

50%

39%

11%

September 1999

53%

40%

7%

April 1999

54%

33%

13%

March 26, 1999

56%

33%

11%

February 1999

68%

27%

5%

January 1999

66%

32%

2%

Hillary vs. Rick: Voters’ Scorecard

New York registered voters see Hillary Clinton as campaigning harder to win their support and as closer to them on the issues than Rick Lazio. New York registered voters are divided over which candidate has the experience to get the job done as U.S. Senator.

Question Wording: Do you think Rick Lazio or Hillary Clinton:

Registered Voters

Lazio

Clinton

Undecided

Is campaigning harder to win your support

25%

49%

26%

Is closer to you on the issues

42%

50%

8%

Has the right experience to do the job

43%

41%

16%

Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat

Nearly half of New York State registered voters are concerned about the fact that Hillary Clinton is not from New York State. 38% are not concerned at all.

Question Wording: Are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that Hillary Clinton is not from New York State?

Registered Voters

A Great Deal

Somewhat

Not Very Much

Not At All

September 12, 2000

32%

17%

13%

38%

June 2000

26%

22%

13%

39%

March 2000

31%

19%

11%

39%

February 24, 2000

26%

21%

12%

41%

February 4, 2000

29%

18%

12%

41%

January 2000

30%

23%

12%

35%

December 1999

33%

24%

8%

35%

October 1999

26%

24%

11%

39%

September 1999

27%

24%

13%

36%

July 1999

32%

20%

11%

37%

April 1999

29%

22%

12%

37%

February 1999

25%

21%

14%

40%

Nature of the Sample: 759 New York State Registered Voters

This survey was conducted on September 6^th, 7^th, and 10^th, 2000. 759 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 4% for the entire sample. There were 516 likely voters. The results for likely voters are statistically significant at ± 4.5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Registered Voters

Likely Voters

Party

Democrat

47%

45%

Republican

32%

35%

Non-enrolled

16%

15%

Conservative

2%

3%

Liberal

2%

1%

Other

1%

1%

Race

White

80%

81%

Black

11%

11%

Latino

5%

3%

Asian

3%

4%

Other

1%

1%

Religion

Protestant

28%

30%

Catholic

48%

45%

Jewish

11%

13%

Other

13%

12%

Gender (weighted)

Men

47%

45%

Women

53%

55%

Age

18 to 30 years old

17%

12%

31 to 44

27%

24%

45 to 60

31%

34%

61 or older

25%

30%

Ideology

Liberal

24%

22%

Moderate

46%

47%

Conservative

30%

31%

Region

Upstate

45%

44%

New York City

31%

32%

Suburbs

24%

24%

Registered voters	Rick Lazio	Hillary Clinton	Undecided
September 12, 2000	44%	49%	7%
June 2000	42%	42%	16%
Likely Voters
September 12, 2000	46%	48%	6%
Likely w/ Leaners
September 12, 2000	47%	50%	3%

Likely Voters	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
September 12, 2000	72%	22%	5%	1%
Rick Lazio Supporters	69%	24%	6%	1%
Hillary Clinton Supporters	75%	20%	4%	1%

Likely Voters	For	Against	Unsure
September 12, 2000	61%	35%	4%
Rick Lazio supporters	41%	53%	6%
Hillary Clinton supporters	80%	17%	3%

Registered Voters	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure/Never Heard
Rick Lazio
September 12, 2000	52%	32%	16%
June 2000	50%	12%	38%
Hillary Clinton
September 12, 2000	54%	40%	6%
June 2000	53%	39%	8%
March 2000	47%	46%	7%
February 24, 2000	50%	40%	10%
February 4, 2000	50%	41%	9%
January 2000	48%	43%	9%
December 1999	52%	38%	10%
October 1999	50%	39%	11%
September 1999	53%	40%	7%
April 1999	54%	33%	13%
March 26, 1999	56%	33%	11%
February 1999	68%	27%	5%
January 1999	66%	32%	2%

Registered Voters	Lazio	Clinton	Undecided
Is campaigning harder to win your support	25%	49%	26%
Is closer to you on the issues	42%	50%	8%
Has the right experience to do the job	43%	41%	16%

Registered Voters	A Great Deal	Somewhat	Not Very Much	Not At All
September 12, 2000	32%	17%	13%	38%
June 2000	26%	22%	13%	39%
March 2000	31%	19%	11%	39%
February 24, 2000	26%	21%	12%	41%
February 4, 2000	29%	18%	12%	41%
January 2000	30%	23%	12%	35%
December 1999	33%	24%	8%	35%
October 1999	26%	24%	11%	39%
September 1999	27%	24%	13%	36%
July 1999	32%	20%	11%	37%
April 1999	29%	22%	12%	37%
February 1999	25%	21%	14%	40%

	Registered Voters	Likely Voters
Party
Democrat	47%	45%
Republican	32%	35%
Non-enrolled	16%	15%
Conservative	2%	3%
Liberal	2%	1%
Other	1%	1%
Race
White	80%	81%
Black	11%	11%
Latino	5%	3%
Asian	3%	4%
Other	1%	1%
Religion
Protestant	28%	30%
Catholic	48%	45%
Jewish	11%	13%
Other	13%	12%
Gender (weighted)
Men	47%	45%
Women	53%	55%
Age
18 to 30 years old	17%	12%
31 to 44	27%	24%
45 to 60	31%	34%
61 or older	25%	30%
Ideology
Liberal	24%	22%
Moderate	46%	47%
Conservative	30%	31%
Region
Upstate	45%	44%
New York City	31%	32%
Suburbs	24%	24%