001013hc

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l 845.575.5050

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, October 13, 2000

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Clinton vs. Lazio: Following Debate Two

Hillary Clinton has a slight edge over Rick Lazio for New York’s U.S. Senate seat following their second debate last weekend. Hillary Clinton has the support of 47% of registered voters, and Rick Lazio receives 43%. 3% support another candidate, and 7% are undecided. Among likely voters, Clinton receives 48% to Lazio’s 44%. Other candidates attract 2%, and 6% of likely voters remain undecided. When undecided likely voters are asked which candidate they are leaning towards, Hillary Clinton receives 50% and Rick Lazio receives 45%. Other candidates receive 2% and 3% of likely voters remain undecided.

Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rick Lazio, the Republican, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Jeffrey Graham, the Independence Party candidate, Mark Dunau, the Green Party candidate, and John Adefope, the Right to Life Party candidate?

Registered voters

Rick Lazio

Hillary Clinton

Otherw

Undecided

October 13, 2000

43%

47%

3%

7%

September 21, 2000

44%

48%

n.a.

8%

September 12, 2000

44%

49%

n.a.

7%

June 2000

42%

42%

n.a.

16%

Likely Voters

October 13, 2000

44%

48%

2%

6%

September 21, 2000

48%

48%

n.a.

4%

September 12, 2000

46%

48%

n.a.

6%

Likely w/ Leaners

October 13, 2000

45%

50%

2%

3%

September 21, 2000

48%

50%

n.a.

2%

September 12, 2000

47%

50%

n.a.

3%

Likely Voters

Rick Lazio

Hillary Clinton

Other

Undecided

Region

Upstate

54%

39%

1%

6%

New York City

24%

69%

3%

4%

Suburbs

50%

40%

2%

8%

Gender

Men

49%

43%

3%

5%

Women

39%

52%

2%

7%

White Women

47%

43%

2%

8%

Non-white Women

11%

83%

0%

6%

Party

Democrat

15%

77%

2%

6%

Republican

80%

14%

2%

4%

Independent

51%

36%

3%

10%

Race

White

53%

39%

2%

6%

Black

0%

95%

0%

5%

Latino

11%

81%

4%

4%

Religion

Protestant

46%

48%

1%

5%

Catholic

49%

42%

2%

7%

White Catholic

55%

36%

2%

7%

Jewish

38%

54%

2%

6%

77% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters and 76% of Rick Lazio’s supporters are strongly committed to their candidate.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rick Lazio/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on election day?

Likely Voters

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

Unsure

October 13, 2000

76%

18%

5%

1%

September 21, 2000

76%

18%

5%

1%

September 12, 2000

72%

22%

5%

1%

Rick Lazio Supporters

October 13, 2000

76%

20%

4%

0%

September 21, 2000

76%

19%

5%

0%

September 12, 2000

69%

24%

6%

1%

Hillary Clinton Supporters

October 13, 2000

77%

16%

6%

1%

September 21, 2000

78%

17%

4%

1%

September 12, 2000

75%

20%

4%

1%

79% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of her rather than negative feelings about Lazio. 48% of Rick Lazio’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of him rather than negative ones towards Clinton.

Question Wording: Rick Lazio Supporters: Did you choose Rick Lazio because you are for Rick Lazio or because you are against Hillary Clinton? Hillary Clinton Supporters: Did you choose Hillary Clinton because you are for Hillary Clinton or because you are against Rick Lazio?

Likely Voters

For

Against

Unsure

October 13, 2000

64%

30%

6%

September 21, 2000

67%

30%

3%

September 12, 2000

61%

35%

4%

Rick Lazio supporters

October 13, 2000

48%

45%

7%

September 21, 2000

51%

44%

5%

September 12, 2000

41%

53%

6%

Hillary Clinton supporters

October 13, 2000

79%

17%

4%

September 21, 2000

82%

16%

2%

September 12, 2000

80%

17%

3%

Favorable/Unfavorable Impressions

There has been no significant change in the number of New York registered voters who have either a positive or negative impression of either Hillary Clinton or Rick Lazio since the last debate.

Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Rick Lazio

October 13, 2000

51%

36%

13%

September 21, 2000

50%

38%

12%

September 12, 2000

52%

32%

16%

June 2000

50%

12%

38%

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/Never Heard

Hillary Clinton

October 13, 2000

52%

43%

5%

September 21, 2000

53%

42%

5%

September 12, 2000

54%

40%

6%

June 2000

53%

39%

8%

March 2000

47%

46%

7%

February 24, 2000

50%

40%

10%

February 4, 2000

50%

41%

9%

January 2000

48%

43%

9%

December 1999

52%

38%

10%

October 1999

50%

39%

11%

September 1999

53%

40%

7%

April 1999

54%

33%

13%

March 26, 1999

56%

33%

11%

February 1999

68%

27%

5%

January 1999

66%

32%

2%

Hillary vs. Rick: Voters’ Scorecard

New York registered voters see Hillary Clinton as campaigning harder to win their support and as closer to them on the issues than Rick Lazio. More New York registered voters think Rick Lazio has the experience to get the job done as U.S. Senator. Voters see Rick Lazio as the candidate who spends more time attacking his opponent than talking about the issues.

Question Wording: Do you think Rick Lazio or Hillary Clinton:

Registered Voters

Lazio

Clinton

Undecided

Is campaigning harder to win your support

28%

43%

29%

Is closer to you on the issues

42%

49%

9%

Has the right experience to do the job

45%

36%

19%

Spends more time attacking their opponent than talking about the issues

43%

28%

29%

Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat

Nearly half of New York State registered voters are concerned about the fact that Hillary Clinton is not from New York State. 40% are not concerned at all.

Question Wording: Are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that Hillary Clinton is not from New York State?

Registered Voters

A Great Deal

Somewhat

Not Very Much

Not At All

October 13, 2000

29%

19%

12%

40%

September 21, 2000

28%

19%

10%

43%

September 12, 2000

32%

17%

13%

38%

June 2000

26%

22%

13%

39%

March 2000

31%

19%

11%

39%

February 24, 2000

26%

21%

12%

41%

February 4, 2000

29%

18%

12%

41%

January 2000

30%

23%

12%

35%

December 1999

33%

24%

8%

35%

October 1999

26%

24%

11%

39%

September 1999

27%

24%

13%

36%

July 1999

32%

20%

11%

37%

April 1999

29%

22%

12%

37%

February 1999

25%

21%

14%

40%

Nature of the Sample: 769 New York State Registered Voters

This survey was conducted on October 10^th and 11^th, 2000. 769 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 4% for the entire sample. There were 542 likely voters. The results for likely voters are statistically significant at ± 4.5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

	Registered Voters	Likely Voters
Party
Democrat	47%	49%
Republican	33%	34%
Non-enrolled	16%	14%
Conservative	1%	1%
Liberal	2%	1%
Other	1%	1%
Race
White	79%	80%
Black	11%	11%
Latino	6%	5%
Asian	2%	2%
Other	2%	2%
Religion
Protestant	29%	32%
Catholic	50%	49%
Jewish	9%	9%
Other	12%	10%
Gender (weighted)
Men	47%	47%
Women	53%	53%
Age
18 to 30 years old	17%	11%
31 to 44	34%	34%
45 to 60	27%	30%
61 or older	22%	25%
Ideology
Liberal	29%	28%
Moderate	44%	44%
Conservative	27%	28%
Region
Upstate	46%	45%
New York City	31%	31%
Suburbs	23%	24%

Registered voters	Rick Lazio	Hillary Clinton	Otherw	Undecided
October 13, 2000	43%	47%	3%	7%
September 21, 2000	44%	48%	n.a.	8%
September 12, 2000	44%	49%	n.a.	7%
June 2000	42%	42%	n.a.	16%
Likely Voters
October 13, 2000	44%	48%	2%	6%
September 21, 2000	48%	48%	n.a.	4%
September 12, 2000	46%	48%	n.a.	6%
Likely w/ Leaners
October 13, 2000	45%	50%	2%	3%
September 21, 2000	48%	50%	n.a.	2%
September 12, 2000	47%	50%	n.a.	3%

Likely Voters	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
October 13, 2000	76%	18%	5%	1%
September 21, 2000	76%	18%	5%	1%
September 12, 2000	72%	22%	5%	1%
Rick Lazio Supporters
October 13, 2000	76%	20%	4%	0%
September 21, 2000	76%	19%	5%	0%
September 12, 2000	69%	24%	6%	1%
Hillary Clinton Supporters
October 13, 2000	77%	16%	6%	1%
September 21, 2000	78%	17%	4%	1%
September 12, 2000	75%	20%	4%	1%

Likely Voters	For	Against	Unsure
October 13, 2000	64%	30%	6%
September 21, 2000	67%	30%	3%
September 12, 2000	61%	35%	4%
Rick Lazio supporters
October 13, 2000	48%	45%	7%
September 21, 2000	51%	44%	5%
September 12, 2000	41%	53%	6%
Hillary Clinton supporters
October 13, 2000	79%	17%	4%
September 21, 2000	82%	16%	2%
September 12, 2000	80%	17%	3%

Registered Voters	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure/Never Heard
Rick Lazio
October 13, 2000	51%	36%	13%
September 21, 2000	50%	38%	12%
September 12, 2000	52%	32%	16%
June 2000	50%	12%	38%

Registered Voters	Lazio	Clinton	Undecided
Is campaigning harder to win your support	28%	43%	29%
Is closer to you on the issues	42%	49%	9%
Has the right experience to do the job	45%	36%	19%
Spends more time attacking their opponent than talking about the issues	43%	28%	29%

Registered Voters	A Great Deal	Somewhat	Not Very Much	Not At All
October 13, 2000	29%	19%	12%	40%
September 21, 2000	28%	19%	10%	43%
September 12, 2000	32%	17%	13%	38%
June 2000	26%	22%	13%	39%
March 2000	31%	19%	11%	39%
February 24, 2000	26%	21%	12%	41%
February 4, 2000	29%	18%	12%	41%
January 2000	30%	23%	12%	35%
December 1999	33%	24%	8%	35%
October 1999	26%	24%	11%	39%
September 1999	27%	24%	13%	36%
July 1999	32%	20%	11%	37%
April 1999	29%	22%	12%	37%
February 1999	25%	21%	14%	40%