FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, November 1, 2000

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

Clinton vs. Lazio: In the Home Stretch

Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a slight edge over Rick Lazio for New York’s U.S. Senate seat in the final week of the campaign. Clinton has the support of 49% of registered voters, and Lazio receives 43%. 3% support another candidate, and 5% are undecided. Among likely voters, Clinton receives 50% to Lazio’s 46%. Other candidates attract 1%, and 3% of likely voters remain undecided. When undecided likely voters are asked which candidate they are leaning towards, Clinton receives 50% and Lazio receives 46%. Other candidates receive 2%, and 2% are undecided.

Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in NYS were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rick Lazio, the Republican, Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat, Jeffrey Graham, the Independence Party candidate, Mark Dunau, the Green Party candidate, and John Adefope, the Right to Life Party candidate?

Registered voters

Lazio

Clinton

Otherw

Undecided

November 1, 2000

43%

49%

3%

5%

October 13, 2000

43%

47%

3%

7%

September 21, 2000

44%

48%

n.a.

8%

September 12, 2000

44%

49%

n.a.

7%

June 2000

42%

42%

n.a.

16%

Likely Voters

November 1, 2000

46%

50%

1%

3%

October 13, 2000

44%

48%

2%

6%

September 21, 2000

48%

48%

n.a.

4%

September 12, 2000

46%

48%

n.a.

6%

Likely w/ Leaners

November 1, 2000

46%

50%

2%

2%

October 13, 2000

45%

50%

2%

3%

September 21, 2000

48%

50%

n.a.

2%

September 12, 2000

47%

50%

n.a.

3%

Likely Voters

Lazio

Clinton

Other

Undecided

Region

Upstate

53%

43%

2%

2%

New York City

28%

68%

1%

3%

Suburbs

54%

41%

1%

4%

Gender

Men

53%

44%

1%

2%

Women

39%

56%

1%

4%

White Women

47%

49%

1%

3%

Non-white Women

5%

88%

2%

5%

Party

Democrat

22%

74%

1%

3%

Republican

78%

16%

2%

4%

Independent

44%

55%

0%

1%

Race

White

53%

43%

1%

3%

Black

2%

90%

2%

6%

Latino

29%

71%

0%

0%

Religion

Protestant

47%

49%

1%

3%

Catholic

52%

42%

2%

4%

White Catholic

58%

36%

2%

4%

Jewish

29%

67%

0%

4%

74% of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s supporters and 76% of Rick Lazio’s supporters are strongly committed to their candidate.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rick Lazio/Hillary Rodham Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think you might vote differently on election day?

Likely Voters

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

Unsure

November 1, 2000

75%

21%

3%

1%

October 13, 2000

76%

18%

5%

1%

September 21, 2000

76%

18%

5%

1%

Lazio Supporters

November 1, 2000

76%

21%

2%

1%

October 13, 2000

76%

20%

4%

0%

September 21, 2000

76%

19%

5%

0%

Clinton Supporters

November 1, 2000

74%

20%

5%

1%

October 13, 2000

77%

16%

6%

1%

September 21, 2000

78%

17%

4%

1%

85% of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of her rather than negative feelings about Lazio. 45% of Rick Lazio’s supporters indicate that their choice is based upon positive views of him rather than negative ones towards Clinton.

Question Wording: Rick Lazio Supporters: Did you choose Rick Lazio because you are for Rick Lazio or because you are against Hillary Rodham Clinton? Hillary Rodham Clinton Supporters: Did you choose Hillary Rodham Clinton because you are for Hillary Rodham Clinton or because you are against Rick Lazio?

Likely Voters

For

Against

Unsure

November 1, 2000

66%

29%

5%

October 13, 2000

64%

30%

6%

September 21, 2000

67%

30%

3%

September 12, 2000

61%

35%

4%

Lazio supporters

November 1, 2000

45%

50%

5%

October 13, 2000

48%

45%

7%

September 21, 2000

51%

44%

5%

September 12, 2000

41%

53%

6%

Clinton supporters

November 1, 2000

85%

10%

5%

October 13, 2000

79%

17%

4%

September 21, 2000

82%

16%

2%

September 12, 2000

80%

17%

3%

Favorable/Unfavorable Impressions

There has been no significant change in the number of New York registered voters who have either a positive or negative impression of either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio since the last Marist Poll.

Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure/

Never Heard

Rick Lazio

November 1, 2000

52%

37%

11%

October 13, 2000

51%

36%

13%

September 21, 2000

50%

38%

12%

September 12, 2000

52%

32%

16%

June 2000

50%

12%

38%

Registered Voters

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unsure

Never Heard

Hillary Rodham Clinton

November 1, 2000

52%

42%

6%

October 13, 2000

52%

43%

5%

September 21, 2000

53%

42%

5%

September 12, 2000

54%

40%

6%

June 2000

53%

39%

8%

March 2000

47%

46%

7%

February 24, 2000

50%

40%

10%

February 4, 2000

50%

41%

9%

January 2000

48%

43%

9%

December 1999

52%

38%

10%

October 1999

50%

39%

11%

September 1999

53%

40%

7%

April 1999

54%

33%

13%

March 26, 1999

56%

33%

11%

February 1999

68%

27%

5%

January 1999

66%

32%

2%

Hillary vs. Rick: Voters’ Scorecard

New York registered voters see Hillary Rodham Clinton as campaigning harder to win their support and as closer to them on the issues than Rick Lazio. More New York registered voters think Rick Lazio is the candidate who has the right experience to do the job. They also think he is the candidate who spends more time attacking his opponent than talking about the issues. Registered voters are divided over which candidate they think is more senatorial. Almost half of registered voters are unsure which candidate is the stronger supporter of Israel.

Question Wording: Do you think Rick Lazio or Hillary Rodham Clinton:

Registered Voters

Lazio

Clinton

Undecided

Is campaigning harder to win your support

27%

39%

34%

Is a stronger supporter of Israel

21%

30%

49%

Is closer to you on the issues

42%

47%

11%

Is more senatorial

40%

42%

18%

Has the right experience to do the job

41%

37%

22%

Spends more time attacking their opponent than talking about the issues

44%

21%

35%

Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat

46% of New York State registered voters are concerned about the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton is not from New York State. 54% are not very concerned or not concerned at all.

Question Wording: Are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton is not from New York State?

Registered Voters

A Great Deal

Somewhat

Not Very Much

Not At All

November 1, 2000

25%

21%

10%

44%

October 13, 2000

29%

19%

12%

40%

September 21, 2000

28%

19%

10%

43%

September 12, 2000

32%

17%

13%

38%

June 2000

26%

22%

13%

39%

March 2000

31%

19%

11%

39%

February 24, 2000

26%

21%

12%

41%

February 4, 2000

29%

18%

12%

41%

January 2000

30%

23%

12%

35%

December 1999

33%

24%

8%

35%

October 1999

26%

24%

11%

39%

September 1999

27%

24%

13%

36%

July 1999

32%

20%

11%

37%

April 1999

29%

22%

12%

37%

February 1999

25%

21%

14%

40%

Place Your Bets

56% of New York State registered voters think Hillary Rodham Clinton will win next week’s election. 35% think Rick Lazio will win.

Question Wording: Regardless of whom you plan to vote for, who do you think is going to win the election for U.S. Senate in New York?

Registered voters

Lazio

Clinton

Other

Undecided

November 1, 2000

35%

56%

1%

8%

Gore with Strong Lead in New York

Al Gore leads George W. Bush by 14% among registered voters in New York. Among likely voters, Gore also leads Bush by 14%. In a similar poll conducted in October, Gore led Bush by 18% among registered voters and 16% among likely voters.

Question Wording: If the next election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters

Bush/

Cheney

Gore/

Lieberman

Buchanan/

Foster

Nader/

LaDuke

Otherw

Und.

November 1, 2000

36%

50%

1%

4%

1%

8%

October 16, 2000

32%

50%

2%

5%

1%

10%

September 25, 2000

33%

53%

1%

4%

1%

8%

September 11, 2000

31%

52%

1%

4%

1%

11%

April 2000

38%

49%

N/A

N/A

4%

9%

December 1999

47%

46%

N/A

N/A

N/A

7%

October 1999

44%

44%

N/A

N/A

N/A

12%

September 1999

46%

44%

N/A

N/A

N/A

10%

March 1999

46%

47%

N/A

N/A

N/A

7%

January 1999

44%

48%

N/A

N/A

N/A

8%

Likely Voters

November 1, 2000

38%

52%

1%

3%

0%

6%

October 16, 2000

35%

51%

2%

4%

1%

7%

September 25, 2000

32%

55%

1%

4%

1%

7%

September 11, 2000

31%

56%

1%

3%

1%

8%

Likely w/ Leaners

November 1, 2000

40%

52%

1%

3%

0%

4%

October 16, 2000

36%

54%

2%

3%

1%

4%

September 25, 2000

33%

58%

1%

5%

1%

2%

September 11, 2000

31%

58%

1%

4%

1%

5%

Nature of the Sample: 753 New York State Registered Voters

This survey was conducted on October 29^th and 30^th, 2000. 753 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ± 4% for the entire sample. There were 516 likely voters. The results for likely voters are statistically significant at ± 4.5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Registered Voters

Likely Voters

Party

Democrat

45%

46%

Republican

34%

35%

Non-enrolled

16%

16%

Conservative

2%

1%

Liberal

2%

1%

Other

1%

1%

Race

White

82%

82%

Black

10%

10%

Latino

5%

5%

Asian

2%

2%

Other

1%

1%

Religion

Protestant

33%

33%

Catholic

47%

46%

Jewish

9%

11%

Other

11%

10%

Gender (weighted)

Men

48%

46%

Women

52%

54%

Age

18 to 30 years old

15%

12%

31 to 44

32%

31%

45 to 60

30%

34%

61 or older

23%

23%

Ideology

Liberal

25%

26%

Moderate

45%

44%

Conservative

30%

30%

Region

Upstate

45%

45%

New York City

31%

30%

Suburbs

24%

25%

Registered voters	Lazio	Clinton	Otherw	Undecided
November 1, 2000	43%	49%	3%	5%
October 13, 2000	43%	47%	3%	7%
September 21, 2000	44%	48%	n.a.	8%
September 12, 2000	44%	49%	n.a.	7%
June 2000	42%	42%	n.a.	16%
Likely Voters
November 1, 2000	46%	50%	1%	3%
October 13, 2000	44%	48%	2%	6%
September 21, 2000	48%	48%	n.a.	4%
September 12, 2000	46%	48%	n.a.	6%
Likely w/ Leaners
November 1, 2000	46%	50%	2%	2%
October 13, 2000	45%	50%	2%	3%
September 21, 2000	48%	50%	n.a.	2%
September 12, 2000	47%	50%	n.a.	3%

Likely Voters	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Might Vote Differently	Unsure
November 1, 2000	75%	21%	3%	1%
October 13, 2000	76%	18%	5%	1%
September 21, 2000	76%	18%	5%	1%
Lazio Supporters
November 1, 2000	76%	21%	2%	1%
October 13, 2000	76%	20%	4%	0%
September 21, 2000	76%	19%	5%	0%
Clinton Supporters
November 1, 2000	74%	20%	5%	1%
October 13, 2000	77%	16%	6%	1%
September 21, 2000	78%	17%	4%	1%

Likely Voters	For	Against	Unsure
November 1, 2000	66%	29%	5%
October 13, 2000	64%	30%	6%
September 21, 2000	67%	30%	3%
September 12, 2000	61%	35%	4%
Lazio supporters
November 1, 2000	45%	50%	5%
October 13, 2000	48%	45%	7%
September 21, 2000	51%	44%	5%
September 12, 2000	41%	53%	6%
Clinton supporters
November 1, 2000	85%	10%	5%
October 13, 2000	79%	17%	4%
September 21, 2000	82%	16%	2%
September 12, 2000	80%	17%	3%

Registered Voters	Favorable	Unfavorable		Unsure/ Never Heard
Rick Lazio
November 1, 2000	52%		37%	11%
October 13, 2000	51%	36%		13%
September 21, 2000	50%	38%		12%
September 12, 2000	52%	32%		16%
June 2000	50%	12%		38%

Registered Voters	A Great Deal	Somewhat	Not Very Much	Not At All
November 1, 2000	25%	21%	10%	44%
October 13, 2000	29%	19%	12%	40%
September 21, 2000	28%	19%	10%	43%
September 12, 2000	32%	17%	13%	38%
June 2000	26%	22%	13%	39%
March 2000	31%	19%	11%	39%
February 24, 2000	26%	21%	12%	41%
February 4, 2000	29%	18%	12%	41%
January 2000	30%	23%	12%	35%
December 1999	33%	24%	8%	35%
October 1999	26%	24%	11%	39%
September 1999	27%	24%	13%	36%
July 1999	32%	20%	11%	37%
April 1999	29%	22%	12%	37%
February 1999	25%	21%	14%	40%

Registered Voters	Bush/ Cheney	Gore/ Lieberman	Buchanan/ Foster	Nader/ LaDuke	Otherw	Und.
November 1, 2000	36%	50%	1%	4%	1%	8%
October 16, 2000	32%	50%	2%	5%	1%	10%
September 25, 2000	33%	53%	1%	4%	1%	8%
September 11, 2000	31%	52%	1%	4%	1%	11%
April 2000	38%	49%	N/A	N/A	4%	9%
December 1999	47%	46%	N/A	N/A	N/A	7%
October 1999	44%	44%	N/A	N/A	N/A	12%
September 1999	46%	44%	N/A	N/A	N/A	10%
March 1999	46%	47%	N/A	N/A	N/A	7%
January 1999	44%	48%	N/A	N/A	N/A	8%
Likely Voters
November 1, 2000	38%	52%	1%	3%	0%	6%
October 16, 2000	35%	51%	2%	4%	1%	7%
September 25, 2000	32%	55%	1%	4%	1%	7%
September 11, 2000	31%	56%	1%	3%	1%	8%
Likely w/ Leaners
November 1, 2000	40%	52%	1%	3%	0%	4%
October 16, 2000	36%	54%	2%	3%	1%	4%
September 25, 2000	33%	58%	1%	5%	1%	2%
September 11, 2000	31%	58%	1%	4%	1%	5%

	Registered Voters	Likely Voters
Party
Democrat	45%	46%
Republican	34%	35%
Non-enrolled	16%	16%
Conservative	2%	1%
Liberal	2%	1%
Other	1%	1%
Race
White	82%	82%
Black	10%	10%
Latino	5%	5%
Asian	2%	2%
Other	1%	1%
Religion
Protestant	33%	33%
Catholic	47%	46%
Jewish	9%	11%
Other	11%	10%
Gender (weighted)
Men	48%	46%
Women	52%	54%
Age
18 to 30 years old	15%	12%
31 to 44	32%	31%
45 to 60	30%	34%
61 or older	23%	23%
Ideology
Liberal	25%	26%
Moderate	45%	44%
Conservative	30%	30%
Region
Upstate	45%	45%
New York City	31%	30%
Suburbs	24%	25%