FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, July 14, 1999
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
While First Lady Hillary Clinton travels the state on her "Listening Tour," this Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
Rudy vs. Hillary
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voterss |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
July 1999 |
46.9% |
40.7% |
12.4% |
April 1999 |
42.8% |
43.5% |
13.7% |
March 26, 1999 |
45.5% |
48.1% |
6.4% |
March 3, 1999 |
45.5% |
49.7% |
4.9% |
February 1999 |
38.1% |
49.0% |
12.9% |
January 1999 |
42.0% |
52.5% |
5.5% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
July 1999 Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
55.7% |
29.5% |
14.8% |
|
New York City |
28.8% |
61.1% |
10.1% |
|
Suburbs |
54.2% |
34.8% |
11.0% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
July 1999 Gender |
|||
|
Men |
52.6% |
38.8% |
8.6% |
|
Under 45 |
53.2% |
40.9% |
6.0% |
|
45 & over |
52.4% |
36.4% |
11.1% |
|
Women |
41.7% |
42.4% |
15.9% |
|
Under 45 |
36.7% |
54.2% |
9.1% |
|
45 & over |
45.4% |
34.6% |
19.9% |
|
July 1999 Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
22.6% |
66.1% |
11.2% |
|
Republican |
78.5% |
10.0% |
11.4% |
|
Independent |
53.7% |
33.8% |
12.5% |
|
July 1999 Race |
|||
|
White |
54.6% |
32.1% |
13.3% |
|
Black |
8.4% |
87.5% |
4.0% |
|
Latino |
26.7% |
70.3% |
3.0% |
|
July 1999 Religion |
|||
|
Protestant |
46.0% |
44.1% |
9.8% |
|
Catholic |
50.2% |
35.4% |
14.5% |
|
Jewish |
48.8% |
37.3% |
13.9% |
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rudolph Giuliani/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on election day?
|
Registered Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
July 1999 |
58.2% |
26.5% |
11.9% |
3.4% |
Rudolph Giuliani Supporters |
57.8% |
28.3% |
11.1% |
2.8% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
58.8% |
24.5% |
12.8% |
4.0% |
Rudy vs. Hillary: Voters’ Scorecard
Question Wording: As a U.S. Senator from New York, do you think Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton is more likely to:
|
Registered Voters |
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
Be able to work with others in the U.S. Senate |
38.7% |
49.9% |
11.4% |
Be a fighter for New York in Washington |
55.7% |
33.8% |
10.4% |
Be a strong supporter of Israel |
29.1% |
37.7% |
33.2% |
Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton decides to run for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
July 1999 |
32.5% |
20.0% |
10.8% |
36.7% |
April 1999 |
29.2% |
21.6% |
11.7% |
37.5% |
February 1999 |
24.9% |
21.5% |
13.7% |
39.9% |
Rick Lazio vs. Hillary Clinton
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rick Lazio, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rick Lazio |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
July 1999 |
33.6% |
46.0% |
20.4% |
|
July 1999 Region |
|||
|
Upstate |
43.9% |
33.1% |
22.9% |
|
New York City |
13.1% |
65.3% |
21.6% |
|
Suburbs |
41.6% |
44.2% |
14.2% |
|
July 1999 Party |
|||
|
Democrat |
10.6% |
70.3% |
19.1% |
|
Republican |
64.0% |
17.5% |
18.5% |
|
Independent |
38.2% |
36.5% |
25.3% |
Three-way Contest
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rick Lazio, the Conservative?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Rick Lazio |
Undecided |
July 1999 |
37.3% |
41.6% |
7.5% |
13.5% |
|
July 1999 Region |
||||
|
Upstate |
42.3% |
31.5% |
11.2% |
15.0% |
|
New York City |
24.1% |
63.4% |
0.7% |
11.8% |
|
Suburbs |
45.2% |
32.4% |
9.5% |
12.9% |
|
July 1999 Party |
||||
|
Democrat |
16.7% |
68.1% |
3.1% |
12.1% |
|
Republican |
65.1% |
10.9% |
12.7% |
11.3% |
|
Independent |
40.5% |
35.2% |
8.5% |
15.8% |
How’s the Other Clinton Doing?
Question Wording: Would you rate the job President Bill Clinton is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/DK |
|
July 1999 |
20% |
36% |
29% |
14% |
1% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
20% |
46% |
20% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1999 |
25% |
43% |
18% |
13% |
1% |
|
April 1998 |
21% |
43% |
21% |
14% |
1% |
|
February 1998 |
22% |
47% |
17% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1997 |
14% |
47% |
26% |
12% |
1% |
|
March 1997 |
13% |
44% |
27% |
15% |
1% |
|
October 1996 |
8% |
43% |
33% |
16% |
0% |
|
September 1996 |
8% |
43% |
37% |
11% |
1% |
|
March 1996 |
12% |
40% |
30% |
17% |
1% |
|
September 1995 |
6% |
38% |
36% |
18% |
2% |
|
March 1995 |
8% |
33% |
35% |
23% |
1% |
|
September 1994 |
8% |
30% |
35% |
25% |
2% |
|
President Bill Clinton’s Job Performance Rating |
|||||
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/DK |
|
July 1999 Region |
|||||
|
Upstate |
18% |
31% |
34% |
16% |
1% |
|
New York City |
25% |
43% |
24% |
8% |
0% |
|
Suburbs |
17% |
38% |
25% |
17% |
3% |
|
July 1999 Gender |
|||||
|
Men |
21% |
32% |
31% |
15% |
1% |
|
Women |
19% |
40% |
27% |
12% |
2% |
|
July 1999 Party |
|||||
|
Democrat |
32% |
43% |
20% |
5% |
0% |
|
Republican |
8% |
30% |
36% |
24% |
2% |
|
Independent |
10% |
38% |
36% |
16% |
0% |
Nature of the Sample: 515 New York State Registered Voters
This survey was conducted on July 11th and 12th, 1999. 515 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ± 4.5%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
80.0% |
Democrat |
44.8% |
|
Black |
10.5% |
Republican |
32.6% |
|
Latino |
5.9% |
Independent |
18.4% |
|
Asian |
3.0% |
Conservative |
2.4% |
|
Other |
0.6% |
Liberal |
1.8% |
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
30.0% |
Liberal |
24.9% |
|
Catholic |
50.5% |
Moderate |
41.0% |
|
Jewish |
8.4% |
Conservative |
34.1% |
|
Other |
11.2% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
47.7% |
Upstate |
44.9% |
|
Women |
52.3% |
New York City |
30.9% |
|
Suburbs |
24.2% |