Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Marist College l Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 l (914) 575-5050
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, December 1, 1999
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
Marist College
(914) 575-5050
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
Rudy vs. Hillary: The Gap Widens
Question Wording: If the next election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
December 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
October 1999 |
46% |
42% |
12% |
September 1999 |
49% |
40% |
11% |
July 1999 |
47% |
41% |
12% |
April 1999 |
43% |
43% |
14% |
March 26, 1999 |
46% |
48% |
6% |
March 3, 1999 |
45% |
50% |
5% |
February 1999 |
38% |
49% |
13% |
January 1999 |
42% |
52% |
6% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Region 12/99 |
|||
|
Upstate |
51% |
33% |
16% |
|
New York City |
39% |
55% |
6% |
|
Suburbs |
55% |
34% |
11% |
|
Gender 12/99 |
|||
|
Men |
57% |
33% |
10% |
|
Women |
42% |
45% |
13% |
|
Registered Voters |
Rudolph Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
|
Party 12/99 |
|||
|
Democrat |
27% |
63% |
10% |
|
Republican |
73% |
19% |
8% |
|
Independent |
54% |
30% |
16% |
|
Race 12/99 |
|||
|
White |
55% |
33% |
12% |
|
Black |
12% |
84% |
4% |
|
Latino |
34% |
56% |
10% |
|
Religion 12/99 |
|||
|
Protestant |
48% |
39% |
13% |
|
Catholic |
55% |
36% |
9% |
|
White Catholic |
59% |
31% |
10% |
|
Jewish |
46% |
37% |
17% |
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support Rudolph Giuliani/Hillary Clinton, somewhat support him/her, or do you think that you might vote differently on Election Day?
|
Registered Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
December 1999 |
58% |
26% |
14% |
2% |
|
October 1999 |
52% |
30% |
15% |
3% |
September 1999 |
58% |
27% |
12% |
3% |
Rudolph Giuliani Supporters |
||||
December 1999 |
61% |
23% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
51% |
30% |
15% |
4% |
September 1999 |
59% |
26% |
12% |
3% |
Hillary Clinton Supporters |
||||
December 1999 |
54% |
30% |
14% |
2% |
October 1999 |
53% |
31% |
14% |
2% |
September 1999 |
57% |
29% |
12% |
2% |
Question Wording: Please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the following:
|
Registered Voters |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure/Never Heard |
|
Rudolph Giuliani |
|||
|
December 1999 |
60% |
27% |
13% |
|
October 1999 |
51% |
39% |
10% |
|
September 1999 |
58% |
30% |
12% |
|
April 1999 |
51% |
27% |
22% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
50% |
32% |
18% |
|
February 1999 |
61% |
25% |
14% |
|
January 1999 |
53% |
36% |
11% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|||
|
December 1999 |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
October 1999 |
50% |
39% |
11% |
|
September 1999 |
53% |
40% |
7% |
|
April 1999 |
54% |
33% |
13% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
56% |
33% |
11% |
|
February 1999 |
68% |
27% |
5% |
|
January 1999 |
66% |
32% |
2% |
A Juggling Act?
Question Wording: Are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all that:
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
|
Hillary Clinton will run for the U.S. Senate while serving as First Lady |
18% |
19% |
13% |
50% |
|
Rudolph Giuliani will run for the U.S. Senate while serving as mayor of New York City |
13% |
21% |
15% |
51% |
Rudy vs. Hillary: Voters’ Scorecard
Question Wording: As a U.S. Senator from New York, do you think Rudolph Giuliani or Hillary Clinton is more likely to:
Registered Voters |
Giuliani |
Clinton |
Undecided |
Be a fighter for New York in Washington |
60% |
29% |
11% |
Be able to work with others in the U.S. Senate |
40% |
45% |
15% |
Be a strong supporter of Israel |
32% |
30% |
38% |
Carpetbagger vs. Welcome Mat
Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for the U.S. Senate in New York State, are you concerned a great deal, somewhat, not very much, or not at all, about the fact that she is not from New York State?
|
Registered Voters |
A Great Deal |
Somewhat |
Not Very Much |
Not At All |
December 1999 |
33% |
24% |
8% |
35% |
October 1999 |
26% |
24% |
11% |
39% |
September 1999 |
27% |
24% |
13% |
36% |
July 1999 |
32% |
20% |
11% |
37% |
April 1999 |
29% |
22% |
12% |
37% |
February 1999 |
25% |
21% |
14% |
40% |
How’s the Other Clinton Doing?
Question Wording: Would you rate the job President Bill Clinton is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?
|
Registered Voters |
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Unsure/DK |
|
December 1999 |
22% |
44% |
23% |
10% |
1% |
|
September 1999 |
18% |
42% |
22% |
18% |
0% |
|
July 1999 |
20% |
36% |
29% |
14% |
1% |
|
March 26, 1999 |
20% |
46% |
20% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1999 |
25% |
43% |
18% |
13% |
1% |
|
April 1998 |
21% |
43% |
21% |
14% |
1% |
|
February 1998 |
22% |
47% |
17% |
13% |
1% |
|
October 1997 |
14% |
47% |
26% |
12% |
1% |
|
March 1997 |
13% |
44% |
27% |
15% |
1% |
|
October 1996 |
8% |
43% |
33% |
16% |
0% |
|
September 1996 |
8% |
43% |
37% |
11% |
1% |
|
March 1996 |
12% |
40% |
30% |
17% |
1% |
|
September 1995 |
6% |
38% |
36% |
18% |
2% |
Nature of the Sample: 609 New York State Registered Voters
This survey was conducted on November 29th and 30th, 1999. 609 registered voters were interviewed in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results for the entire sample are statistically significant at ± 4%. The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.
|
Race |
Party |
||
|
White |
82% |
Democrat |
44% |
|
Black |
10% |
Republican |
34% |
|
Latino |
5% |
Independent |
18% |
|
Asian |
2% |
Conservative |
2% |
|
Other |
1% |
Liberal |
1% |
|
Other |
1% |
||
|
Religion |
Ideology |
||
|
Protestant |
30% |
Liberal |
26% |
|
Catholic |
50% |
Moderate |
45% |
|
Jewish |
9% |
Conservative |
29% |
|
Other |
11% |
||
|
Gender (weighted) |
Region |
||
|
Men |
48% |
Upstate |
45% |
|
Women |
52% |
New York City |
30% |
|
Suburbs |
25% |