NYS Poll:  February 5th Presidential Primaries

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Saturday February 2, 2008

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:        Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

This WNBC/Marist Poll of New York State reports:

Democratic Presidential Primary 2008

·             Hillary Clinton has a double-digit lead over Barack Obama in New York:  Senator Hillary Clinton has crossed the fifty percent mark in the support she receives from New York Democrats.  Clinton receives support from 54% of Democrats likely to vote in the primary including those who are leaning toward a candidate.  Senator Obama has 38%.  8% of likely Democratic voters are undecided.   New York is a closed primary where only registered Democrats are eligible to participate. 

 

Question Wording: If the New York Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

 

February 2008

January 2008

Democrats

Likely w/ Leaners

Likely Democrats

Democrats w/ Leaners

All

Democrats

Likely w/ Leaners

Likely Democrats

Hillary Clinton

54%

52%

54%

50%

48%

47%

Barack Obama

38%

37%

36%

35%

32%

31%

Other

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

13%

12%

Undecided

  8%

11%

10%

15%

  7%

10%

 

Likely Democratic Primary Voters w/ Leaners

 

February 2008

 

 

Upstate

 

 

NYC

 

 

Suburbs

Hillary Clinton

54%

53%

52%

61%

Barack Obama

38%

37%

42%

28%

Other

<1%

  1%

<1%

  1%

Undecided

  8%

  9%

  6%

10%

 

 

·                Most Democrats strongly support their choice:  78% of likely Democratic voters strongly support a candidate for their party’s nomination for president.  79% of likely Democrats who back Hillary Clinton say they are strongly committed to her.   76% of Barack Obama’s supporters are firmly committed to him.

 

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him/her, or do you think you might vote differently on primary day? 

 

Likely Democratic

Primary Voters

Strongly

Support

Somewhat

Support

Might Vote

Differently

 

Unsure

February 2008

78%

14%

  7%

  1%

January 2008

68%

19%

12%

  1%

Hillary Clinton

 

 

 

 

  February 2008

79%

13%

  6%

  2%

  January 2008

79%

16%

  5%

<1%

Barack Obama

 

 

 

 

  February 2008

76%

16%

  7%

  1%

  January 2008

58%

26%

14%

  2%

 

·                Democrats divide over their impressions of the campaign’s tone:  42% of Democrats in New York think the candidates have spent more time talking about the issues compared with 40% who believe they have spent more time attacking each other.

 

Question Wording: Do you feel that the Democratic candidates for president have spent more time:

 

Registered Democrats

Talking about their positions on issues

 

 

Attacking each other

 

 

 

Both

 

 

 

Unsure

February 2008

42%

40%

10%

  8%

 Hillary Clinton supporters

49%

35%

  9%

  7%

 Barack Obama supporters

40%

41%

10%

  9%

 

·                What about the other Clinton?  48% of Democrats in New York think former President Bill Clinton has helped his wife in her campaign for the White House.  This includes 61% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters in New York but only 34% of Democrats who support Barack Obama.  40% of Democrats think Bill Clinton has had a negative impact on his wife’s candidacy including over a quarter of her own supporters and a majority of Democrats who back Obama.

 

Question Wording: Overall, do you think Bill Clinton has helped or hurt Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the Democratic nomination for president?

 

Registered Democrats

Helped

Hurt

Unsure

February 2008

48%

40%

12%

 Hillary Clinton supporters

61%

26%

13%

 Barack Obama supporters

34%

57%

  9%

 

·                New York Democrats take notice of the Kennedy endorsements…but does it alter the contest?  About one-third of New York Democrats say they are more likely to support Barack Obama after he received the endorsements of Caroline Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedy including about one in five Hillary Clinton supporters.  But, almost as many Democrats are less likely to support him in light of the nod from the Kennedys.  37% of Democrats say it makes no difference to their vote.

 

Question Wording: Does Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama make you more likely to support Barack Obama or less likely to support him?

 

Registered Democrats

More likely

Less likely

Makes no difference

February 2008

33%

30%