NYS Poll: February 5th Presidential
Primaries
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Saturday February 2, 2008
All
references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
This WNBC/Marist Poll of New York State reports:
·
Hillary Clinton has a double-digit lead over Barack
Obama in New York: Senator Hillary Clinton has crossed the fifty
percent mark in the support she receives from New York Democrats. Clinton receives support from 54% of Democrats
likely to vote in the primary including those who are leaning toward a
candidate. Senator Obama has 38%. 8% of likely Democratic voters are
undecided. New York is a closed primary where only registered Democrats are eligible
to participate.
Question Wording: If
the New York Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, whom would you
support if the candidates are:
|
|
February 2008 |
January 2008 |
||||
Democrats
|
Likely w/ Leaners |
Likely Democrats |
Democrats w/ Leaners |
All Democrats |
Likely w/ Leaners |
Likely Democrats |
|
Hillary Clinton |
54% |
52% |
54% |
50% |
48% |
47% |
|
Barack Obama |
38% |
37% |
36% |
35% |
32% |
31% |
|
Other |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
13% |
12% |
|
Undecided |
8% |
11% |
10% |
15% |
7% |
10% |
|
Likely Democratic Primary Voters w/ Leaners |
February 2008 |
Upstate |
NYC |
Suburbs |
|
Hillary Clinton |
54% |
53% |
52% |
61% |
|
Barack Obama |
38% |
37% |
42% |
28% |
|
Other |
<1% |
1% |
<1% |
1% |
|
Undecided |
8% |
9% |
6% |
10% |
·
Most Democrats strongly
support their choice: 78% of likely Democratic voters
strongly support a candidate for their party’s nomination for president. 79% of likely Democrats who back Hillary
Clinton say they are strongly committed to her. 76% of Barack Obama’s supporters are firmly
committed to him.
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate),
somewhat support him/her, or do you think you might vote differently on primary
day?
|
Likely Democratic Primary
Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
February 2008 |
78% |
14% |
7% |
1% |
|
January 2008 |
68% |
19% |
12% |
1% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
|
|
|
|
|
February
2008 |
79% |
13% |
6% |
2% |
|
January
2008 |
79% |
16% |
5% |
<1% |
|
Barack Obama |
|
|
|
|
|
February
2008 |
76% |
16% |
7% |
1% |
|
January
2008 |
58% |
26% |
14% |
2% |
·
Democrats divide over their
impressions of the campaign’s tone: 42% of Democrats in New York
think the candidates have spent more time talking about the issues compared
with 40% who believe they have spent more time attacking each other.
Question Wording: Do you feel that the Democratic
candidates for president have spent more time:
|
Registered Democrats |
Talking about their positions on issues |
Attacking each other |
Both |
Unsure |
|
February
2008 |
42% |
40% |
10% |
8% |
|
Hillary Clinton supporters |
49% |
35% |
9% |
7% |
|
Barack Obama supporters |
40% |
41% |
10% |
9% |
·
What about the other Clinton? 48% of Democrats in New York think former
President Bill Clinton has helped his wife in her campaign for the White
House. This includes 61% of Hillary
Clinton’s supporters in New York but only 34% of Democrats who support Barack
Obama. 40% of Democrats think Bill
Clinton has had a negative impact on his wife’s candidacy including over a
quarter of her own supporters and a majority of Democrats who back Obama.
Question Wording: Overall, do you think Bill Clinton has helped or hurt Hillary
Clinton's chances of winning the Democratic nomination for president?
|
Registered Democrats |
Helped |
Hurt |
Unsure |
|
February
2008 |
48% |
40% |
12% |
|
Hillary Clinton supporters |
61% |
26% |
13% |
|
Barack Obama supporters |
34% |
57% |
9% |
·
New York Democrats take notice of the Kennedy endorsements…but does it
alter the contest? About one-third of New York
Democrats say they are more likely to support Barack Obama after he received
the endorsements of Caroline Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedy including about
one in five Hillary Clinton supporters.
But, almost as many Democrats are less likely to support him in light of
the nod from the Kennedys. 37% of
Democrats say it makes no difference to their vote.
Question Wording: Does Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama make you more likely
to support Barack Obama or less likely to support him?
|
Registered Democrats |
More likely |
Less likely |
Makes no difference |
|
February
2008 |
33% |
30% |