EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Friday 6:00 p.m. July 21, 2006

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:          Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

 

New York State:  Presidential Campaign 2008

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani Are Odds on Favorites Among

Their Party’s Faithful in New York, But…

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                  Hillary Clinton is the Democratic presidential primary frontrunner among New York Democrats but many registered voters, including Democrats, question her electability:  Hillary Clinton outdistances the Democratic primary field among New York Democrats for president in 2008.  Most Democrats and a majority of independents generally think she is ideologically about right, neither too liberal nor too conservative.  New York voters divide over whether they would like to see her enter the presidential contest in 2008 even though many think she will.  But most registered voters, including a majority of Democrats, do not think she is likely to win.  In match-ups for the 2008 presidential contest between Democrat Clinton and the leading Republicans, this traditionally blue state becomes competitive with Republican McCain and moves into the red column with Republican Giuliani.

 

Ø      Senator Hillary Clinton outpaces the field of potential Democratic candidates for the Democratic presidential primary in New York in 2008.  Clinton receives 42% among registered Democrats.  Former Vice President Al Gore receives 24%.  Former Senator John Edwards, Senator Joe Biden, Senator Russ Feingold, Senator John Kerry, former Governor Mark Warner, retired General Wesley Clark, Senator Chris Dodd, former Senator Tom Daschle, Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Evan Bayh, and Governor Tom Vilsack trail with single digits.  6% of Democrats are undecided.

Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:  (asked of registered Democrats)

 

Registered Democrats

July 2006

Hillary Clinton

42%

Al Gore

24%

John Edwards

  6%

Joe Biden

  6%

Russ Feingold

  5%

John Kerry

  5%

Mark Warner

  1%

Wesley Clark

  1%

Chris Dodd

  1%

Tom Daschle

  1%

Bill Richardson

  1%

Evan Bayh

  1%

Tom Vilsack

<1%

Undecided

  6%

 

Ø      56% of New York voters think Senator Clinton is ideologically about right including 71% of Democrats and a majority of independents, that is, New York voters not enrolled in any party.  28% say she is too liberal, including 49% of New York Republicans.  Only 10% of registered voters in New York consider her to be too conservative.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

 

Registered Voters

Too Liberal

Too Conservative

About Right

Unsure

July 2006

28%

10%

56%

  6%

Party

 

 

 

 

 Democrat

11%

14%

71%

  4%

 Republican

49%

  8%

37%

  6%

 Non-enrolled

32%

  8%

54%

  6%

 

Ø      New York voters divide over whether or not they want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2008. 46% of registered voters would like to see her run, and 49% do not want her to enter the presidential sweepstakes.  5% are unsure.  62% of Democrats would like to see her in the race for president but 66% of Republicans and 52% of independents do not.

 

Question Wording: Do you want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Yes, Run

No, Don’t Run

Unsure

July 2006

46%

49%

  5%

Party

 

 

 

  Democrats

62%

34%

  4%

  Republicans

30%

66%

  4%

  Non-enrolled

40%

52%

   8%

Previous Polls

 

 

 

May 2006

49%

44%

  7%

January 2006

41%

49%

10%

September 2005

40%

52%

  8%

 

Ø      60% of New York voters think Hillary Clinton will, in fact, run for president in 2008.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Will Run

Will Not Run

Unsure

July 2006

60%

35%

5%

Party

 

 

 

  Democrats

63%

33%

  4%

  Republicans

58%

37%

  5%

  Non-enrolled

60%

35%

  5%

Previous Polls

 

 

 

May 2006

60%

32%

  8%

January 2006

59%

29%

12%

September 2005

54%

34%

12%

August 2005

55%

27%

18%

 

Ø      Many New York voters do not think Hillary Clinton will be elected president.  Should she decide to run for president in 2008, 64% of New York voters do not think it is likely she will be elected, including 54% of Democrats.

 

Question Wording: Do you think it is very likely, likely, not very likely, or not likely at all that Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2008?

 

 

Registered Voters

Very Likely

 

Likely

Not Very Likely

Not Likely At All

 

Unsure

July 2006

10%

24%

40%

24%

  2%

Party

 

 

 

 

 

  Democrats

15%

29%

38%

16%

  2%

  Republicans

  6%

18%

41%

33%

  2%

  Non-enrolled

  7%

21%

42%

27%

  3%

Previous Polls

 

 

 

 

 

May 2006

  8%

23%

40%

26%

  3%

January 2006

  8%

25%

39%

23%

  5%

 

Ø      Both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain put New York’s 31 electoral votes in play for the Republicans against Hillary Clinton.  In match-ups against the two top Republican contenders in New York, Senator Clinton trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by 9 points.  She runs competitively against Senator John McCain.  When matched against Governor George Pataki, Clinton outpaces him by 55% to 39%.

 

Question wording:  If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

 

Registered Voters

Hillary Clinton

Rudy Giuliani

Undecided

July 2006

43%

52%

  5%

Party

 

 

 

 Democrat

65%