EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:  Thursday 6:00 p.m. December 7, 2006

All references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll

 

Contact:          Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho

Marist College

845.575.5050

National Poll:  Campaign 2008

 

This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

·                  Hillary Clinton is a strong favorite among Democrats, but is she electable?  Hillary Clinton outdistances her closest Democratic rivals by more than two to one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents for her party’s nomination.  Democrats think she is neither too liberal nor too conservative.  Most of them would like to see her enter the presidential contest in 2008, and many think she will.  But Senator Clinton has much more convincing to do among a general electorate that is divided over whether they want to see her in the race.  Only a slim majority of voters say they will consider supporting her, and the electorate divides evenly among voters who would vote for a woman for president on the Democratic ticket and those who would not.  Hillary Clinton runs competitively, yet behind, the two top Republican frontrunners.  Most voters feel her electability is not an issue in deciding their vote, although a significant proportion of Democrats voice at least some concern.  Should she decide to enter the 2008 presidential contest, except for a majority of Democrats, most voters do not think she is likely to win.

 

Ř      Senator Hillary Clinton receives 33% among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents for her party’s 2008 presidential nomination.  She is followed by former Senator John Edwards with 14%, former Vice President Al Gore with 13%, and Senator Barack Obama with 12%.  Eight other potential Democratic candidates trail with single digits.  16% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters are undecided.

 

Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:  (asked of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents)

 

Democrats

December 2006

October 2006

February 2006

 Hillary Clinton

33%

35%

33%

 John Edwards

14%

10%

16%

 Al Gore

13%

16%

17%

 Barack Obama

12%

n.a.

n.a.

 John Kerry

  5%

  9%

11%

 Joe Biden

  3%

  5%

  4%

 Bill Richardson

  1%

  1%

  2%

 Evan Bayh

  1%

  1%

  3%

 Wesley Clark

  1%

  1%

  3%

 Tom Vilsack

  1%

<1%

<1%

 Al Sharpton

<1%

n.a.

n.a.

 Chris Dodd

<1%

  1%

n.a.

 Other

n.a.

  5%

  2%

 Undecided

16%

16%

  9%

 

Ř      44% of registered voters think Senator Clinton is ideologically about right but 41% say she is too liberal.  There is a wide partisan divide.  73% of Democrats think she is ideologically well positioned compared with 73% of Republicans who characterize her as too liberal.  Independent voters are more divided.  44% believe her views are about right, and 38% think she is too liberal.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

 

Registered Voters

Too Liberal

Too Conservative

About Right

Unsure

December 2006

41%

  6%

44%

  9%

 Democrat

12%

  7%

73%

  8%

 Republican

73%

  5%

13%

  9%

 Independent

38%

  7%

44%

11%

October 2006

40%

  6%

43%

11%

February 2006

42%

  6%

45%

  7%

October 2005

39%

  6%

46%

  9%

 

Ř      Voters divide over whether they want Senator Clinton to run for president in 2008.  48% of the national electorate, including 76% of Democrats, want to see her enter the presidential contest.  50% of registered voters do not want her to run including 80% of Republicans and a majority of independent voters.

 

Question Wording: Do you want Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Yes, Run

No, Don’t Run

Unsure

December 2006

48%

50%

  2%

 Democrat

76%

21%

  3%

 Republican

17%

80%

  3%

 Independent

47%

52%

  1%

October 2006

46%

51%

   3%

February 2006

47%

51%

  2%

October 2005

48%

49%

  3%

May 2005

49%

48%

  3%

February 2005

46%

49%

  5%

December 2004

38%

50%

12%

 

Ř      76% of voters nationwide think Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008, an increase from 64% in October.

 

Question Wording: Do you think Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008 or not?

 

Registered Voters

Will Run

Will Not Run

Unsure

December 2006

76%

17%

  7%

 Democrat

75%

15%

10%

 Republican

79%

16%

  5%

 Independent

75%

20%

  5%

October 2006

64%