EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Tuesday 6:00 p.m. May 8, 2007
All
references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
National
Poll: Presidential Campaign 2008
This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:
·
Hillary
Clinton is not only the Democratic favorite for her party’s nomination but, for
the first time, she edges both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain: Senator
Hillary Clinton still outpaces her Democratic rivals by a wide margin. She has the support of over one-third of
Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationwide and leads her closest primary
opponent, Senator Barack Obama, by 18 percentage points. 35% of potential Democratic primary voters support
Clinton, and 17% support Obama. Former
Senator John Edwards follows with 15%.
In addition, 60% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters in the primary say they
are firmly committed to voting for her.
Democrats are looking for strong leadership in their nominee and someone who will bring about change. Democrats who support Hillary Clinton think she fits the bill. 34% of her supporters want a strong leader, and 21% want a candidate that will bring about change. Backers of Barack Obama are most interested in a candidate that will be an agent of change.
Hillary Clinton’s position on the war in Iraq is also not hurting her among Democrats. Only 9% of Democrats say her position makes them less likely to vote for her, and 48% say it actually makes them more likely to support her.
Among registered voters as a whole, Hillary Clinton is still a polarizing figure. 41% of voters say they will not even consider voting for her, and four in ten feel she is too liberal. However, for the first time, Clinton narrowly leads in matchups for the general election against the top two Republican candidates, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator John McCain.
Ø
35% of Democrats and Democratic leaning
independents nationwide support Senator Hillary Clinton for the party’s 2008
presidential nomination. Senator Barack
Obama receives 17%, former Senator John Edwards garners 15%, and former Vice
President Al Gore has 9%. A field of six
other Democratic contenders trail with very low single digits. 17% of potential
Democratic primary voters are undecided.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: Democrats/Democratic leaning independents
Democrats
|
May 2007 |
February 2007 |
December 2006 |
October 2006 |
February 2006 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
35% |
37% |
33% |
35% |
33% |
|
Barack Obama |
17% |
17% |
12% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
John Edwards |
15% |
11% |
14% |
10% |
16% |
|
Al Gore |
9% |
11% |
13% |
16% |
17% |
|
Bill Richardson |
3% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
Joe Biden |
2% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1% |
<1% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
Chris Dodd |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
n.a. |
|
Wesley Clark |
<1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
|
Mike Gravel |
<1% |
1% |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
Other |
n.a |
1% |
7% |
15% |
16% |
|
Undecided |
17% |
17% |
16% |
16% |
9% |
Ø 60% of Democrats who support Hillary Clinton are strongly committed to voting for her on primary day. 21% say they somewhat support her, and 18% might vote differently.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support Hillary Clinton, somewhat support her, or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day? Only Democrats supporting Hillary Clinton in the primary
|
Democrats Supporting Hillary Clinton |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
May 2007 |
60% |
21% |
18% |
1% |
Ø 27% of Democrats cite strong leadership as the most important quality they would like to see in a presidential candidate, and 24% are looking for someone that will bring about change. 34% of Democrats who support Hillary Clinton want a strong leader, and 21% are interested in a candidate that will bring change. Backers of Barack Obama are most likely to want change. 41% of his supporters want their nominee to be an agent of change, and 19% are interested in a strong leader. There is no consensus among John Edwards’ supporters. 24% of his backers want a strong leader, 19% want someone who will bring about change, is closer to them on the issues, or shares their values, and 16% want a candidate with the experience to be president.
Question Wording: When thinking about whom to support for president, which one of the following qualities is most important to you: someone who is closer to you on the issues, has experience, is a strong leader, will bring about change, shares your values, or has the best chance of being elected? Democrats/Democratic leaning independents
Democrats
|
Strong
leader |
Bring
about change |
Shares
your values |
Closer
on the issues |
Has
experience |
Chance
of being elected |
|
May 2007 |
27% |
24% |
19% |
18% |
10% |
2% |
|
Hillary
Clinton |
34% |
21% |
19% |
13% |
12% |
1% |
|
Barack Obama |
19% |
41% |
18% |
18% |
4% |
<1% |
|
John
Edwards |
24% |
19% |
19% |
19% |
16% |
3% |
Ø 27% of registered voters say Hillary Clinton’s position on the war makes them less likely to support her, while 29% state that it makes them more likely to do so. 44% say it makes no difference in their decision to back Senator Clinton. Among Democrats, 48% say her position on the war makes them more likely to vote for her, and only 9% are less likely to do so.
Question wording: Does Hillary Clinton's position on the war in Iraq make you more likely or less likely to support her, or does it make no difference to you?
|
Registered
Voters |
More
Likely |
Less
Likely |
No
Difference |
|
May 2007 |
29% |
27% |
44% |
|
Democrat |
48% |
9% |
43% |