FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday November 6, 2007
All
references must be sourced WNBC/Marist Poll
Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
845.575.5050
National
Poll: Presidential Campaign 2008
This WNBC/Marist Poll reports:
·
One year
out from election 2008: Following
last Tuesday’s Democratic debate, Hillary Clinton has a commanding, though
diminished, lead nationwide against her rivals for the Democratic nomination. Overall, 48% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationwide support Senator
Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Her
closest primary opponent is Senator Barack Obama who receives 17% followed by
John Edwards with 10%. But, a comparison
of interviews completed before and after last week’s Democratic debate reveals Hillary
Clinton’s support among Democratic primary voters was 52% before the debate and
43% after the debate.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: Democrats/Democratic leaning independents
Democratic
Primary Voters
|
November 2007 |
Monday Tuesday |
Wednesday Thursday |
May 2007 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
48% |
52% |
43% |
35% |
|
Barack Obama |
17% |
16% |
18% |
17% |
|
John Edwards |
10% |
10% |
8% |
15% |
|
Bill Richardson |
3% |
2% |
6% |
3% |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
|
Joe Biden |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
Chris Dodd |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Mike Gravel |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Other |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
9% |
|
Undecided |
19% |
16% |
22% |
17% |
Ø
55% of
Democrats who support Hillary Clinton are strongly committed to voting for her
on primary day. 26% say they somewhat
support her, and 16% might vote differently.
This compares with 48% of Barack Obama’s supporters who are firmly
committed to him.
Question Wording: Would you say that you strongly support (candidate name), somewhat support her/him, or do you think that you might vote differently on primary day? (Support for the other candidates is too small for subgroup analysis)
|
Democratic
Primary
Voters |
Strongly Support |
Somewhat Support |
Might Vote Differently |
Unsure |
|
November 2007 |
52% |
27% |
19% |
2% |
|
Hillary Clinton supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
November 2007 |
55% |
26% |
16% |
3% |
|
May 2007 |
60% |
21% |
18% |
1% |
|
Barack Obama supporters |
|
|
|
|
|
November 2007 |
48% |
30% |
19% |
3% |
Ø
Among registered voters, Hillary Clinton leads
Rudy Giuliani, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, by ten percentage
points. Nationally, Clinton receives the
support of 50% of registered voters compared with 40% for Giuliani. 10% of voters are undecided. Clinton has a wide margin over Giuliani among
women but is closely matched against him among men. There was statistically no difference before
and after the Democratic debate.
Question Wording: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: (candidate name, party)
|
Registered Voters |
Hillary Clinton Democrat |
Rudy Giuliani Republican |
Undecided |
|
November
2007 |
50% |
40% |
10% |
|
Monday/Tuesday |
50% |
38% |
12% |
|
Wednesday/Thursday |
50% |
41% |
9% |
|
Democrat |
85% |
9% |
6% |
|
Republican |
12% |
81% |
7% |
|
Independent
|
49% |
36% |
15% |
|
Men |
46% |
44% |
10% |
|
Women |
53% |
35% |
12% |
|
May
2007 |
48% |
43% |
9% |
|
February
2007 |
45% |
47% |
8% |
|
December
2006 |
43% |
49% |
8% |
|
October
2006 |
42% |
49% |
9% |
|
February
2006 |
47% |
48% |
5% |
|
October
2005 |
43% |
50% |
7% |